Module 15: New Revenue Streams (Path to $0 Net Shortfall Narrative)
1. Purpose
This module models policy-illustration annual revenues that sit outside the core M5–M7 audit and rate-on-base sliders, but stack against the ~$24B OBM property-tax replacement wedge. Values live in tax_rules.json → new_streams (billions USD / year) and feed core/engine.py ground_truth_dashboard as Module 15.
2. Components (headline logic)
| Policy lever | Engine key | Modeled annual \$ | Logic (public-education summary) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adult-use cannabis excise | cannabis_excise_recovery |
\$250M (\$0.25B) | State excise / fee recovery as the 2026 adult-use market matures — “sin tax” cash earmarked toward offset property relief envelope. |
| Sports betting (2% hike) | gaming_tax_hike_2_percent |
\$200M (\$0.20B) | Incremental gaming / sports-betting” privilege revenue from a +2% policy notch on regulated handle (illustrative stake, not a scored LSC bill). |
| Professional services expansion | professional_services_expansion |
\$2.80B | Extends enumerated 5.75% state SUT logic to high-value B2B services (law, lobby, investment banking) not fully in the consumer base proxy — largest modeled Module 15 line. |
3. Stacking math (illustrative)
- Audit + Module 17 transparency anchor: ~\$5.07B consolidated in
state_wide_metrics.audit_gap_annual_recovery_target_dollars(legacy ~\$4.15B plus \$920M Module 17 transparency recovery under 100% compliance pressure). - Module 15 subtotal: \$0.25B + \$0.20B + \$2.80B = \$3.25B.
- Combined recovery vs. the wedge (audit+M17 anchor + Module 15): ~\$8.32B/year (model-specific).
- Property wedge after this stack (illustration only): remainder toward ~\$15.7B before broader base/rate tools.
On the dashboard, strip Net Shortfall reflects property wedge minus consolidated audit+M17 anchor (values from JSON).
4. Engine treatment
OhioTaxEngine.new_streams_billions_map()/new_streams_total_dollars()readnew_streams.ground_truth_dashboardadds Module 15 dollars tocombined_recovery_proxy_dollars(with audit anchor and M4/M7 incremental revenue).final_verdict.net_remaining_on_twenty_four_b_gap_*reflects all stacked recoveries.
5. Disclaimer
Not legislative scoring, not OBM certification. Double-count guards and dynamic feedback (elasticity, interstate competition) belong outside this static envelope.